Fund Update

Just realized MS will announce earnings next Wed 17-Dec, two days prior to expiry Fri 19-Dec.
MS price at $13.92 still very far 46% away from Strike price $7.50.
As we do not trade through earnings due to unpredictable market response, decided to close out all MS positions.
Proceeded BTC 10x contracts at $0.10.
BTC 10x MS-Dec-7.50-PUT keep profit $986.

C price at $7.83 about 36% from Strike price $5.00.
Decided to close out to lock in profit. BTC 50x contracts at $0.05.
BTC 50x C-Dec-5.00-PUT keep profit $2,052.

Net Fund Value = $95,826 and cash on-hand $95,841.

Fund Update

Fund A :
No trade for the whole week.
Net Value increased from $50,000 (1-Sep-08) to $94,451.
Cash position $97,876.

Fund A Open Positions :-
-10x MS-Dec-7.50-PUT (target profit $1,100)
-40x C-Dec-7.50-PUT (target profit $4,680)
-80x C-Dec-5.00-PUT (target profit $3,720)
-10x C-Dec-2.50-PUT (target profit $ 650)

Two more weeks to expiry Friday 19-Dec. Have to decide whether to close out all positions prior to expiry Friday.

Funds Update (Fund B CLOSED)

FUND B CLOSED as target met. Net value increased 100% from $10,000 (1-Sep-08) to now $20,875 (29-Nov-08) in less than 3 months (target was 12 months). Congrates.

Fund B : Value increased from $10K (1-Sep-08) to $20,875. Target met and Fund B CLOSED. Kept 20% commission on profit made. Returned $18K to investor (nephew).



Fund A : Value increased from $50K (1-Sep-08) to $93,206.

Fund A Open Positions :-
-10x MS-Dec-7.50-PUT (target profit $1,100)
-40x C-Dec-7.50-PUT (target profit $4,680)
-80x C-Dec-5.00-PUT (target profit $3,720)
-10x C-Dec-2.50-PUT (target profit $ 650)

Fund Update

From lesson learnt last month, have decided to close positions that have achieve 70% or more of the full target profit going forward.


Instead of waiting another 3.5 weeks to get full profit of $2,115, have gone ahead to CLOSE out and collected profit of $1,668.
BTC 45x MS-Dec-5.00-PUT (target profit 45x$0.47 = $2,115).
Collected profit $1,668 about 79% of full potential.

Fund A on Expiry Friday 21-Nov-08

A very volatile week for stocks and MS. MS ended at $10.05.
End results :- kept a total profit of US$5,890 only instead of the targeted full potential of $8,350 for the MS 4-step ladder. Because MS ended below defence line of option PUT-Nov-12.50. The other 3 options expired worthless and kept all profits.




10x MS-Nov-12.50-PUT (target profit $1,650). LOST -$800.
10x MS-Nov-10.00-PUT (target profit $1,100). PROFIT kept.
30x MS-Nov-7.50-PUT (target profit $2,430). PROFIT kept.
20x MS-Nov-5.00-PUT (target profit $3,160). PROFIT kept.

Lesson learnt. Should have closed all positions before travelling to US and take the profit earlier in the range of $6K to $7.3K instead of taking additional full 2-week risk for the additional $1K potential profit.

Fund A & B Update

Wed 19-Nov update as of 11:33pm

Fund A
SELL to Open 20x on C-Dec-7.5-PUT at $1.35.
SELL to Open 40x on C-Dec-5.0-PUT at $0.50.

Fund B
SELL to Open 10x on C-Dec-5.0-PUT at $0.50.

Tue 18-Nov-08 update

Fund A - Both MS and C Implied Volatility still high. CNBC showing Berneke and Paul Hanson answering questions.
C announced cutting workforce by 52,000 people and stock price dropping for the past 2 days, should be close to bottom now.
SELL to Open 25x on MS-Dec-5.0-PUT at $0.40.
SELL to Open 20x on C-Dec-7.5-PUT at $1.09.
SELL to Open 10x on C-Dec-5.0-PUT at $0.43.

Mon 17-Nov-08 Fund Series A & B Update

Today market dropped further since last week. Volatility for MS crossed 200% and C crossed 158%. Decided to setup some positions for Dec month.





Fund A
SELL to Open 10x on MS-Dec-7.5-PUT at $1.10.
SELL to Open 10x on C-Dec-7.5-PUT at $1.00.
SELL to Open 20x on C-Dec-5.0-PUT at $0.40.

Fund B
SELL to Open 10x on MS-Dec-7.5-PUT at $1.06.
SELL to Open 10x on MS-Dec-5.0-PUT at $0.45.
SELL to Open 10x on C-Dec-7.5-PUT at $1.03.

Investment Fund Series A Update for Fri 14-Nov-08

Reached home at 1:00am after coming back from Brazil. Was out the whole week. Zero trades. Looking at the past 5 days chart, market was quite volatile.
MS dropped to $12.03 at end of Friday 14-Nov. None of the stop-lost orders were triggered. All 4 steps of the ladder still in the money. 5 more days to go until 3rd Friday Option Expiry day.

Investment Fund Series A Update for Fri 7-Nov-08

Reached home at 11:45pm after the whole day personal training today. Two more full training days to go on Sat & Sun.
No trade this week. There will be no trade next week as well. Stop-lost order is still in place till end of next week.
If things turn out as planned, profit for this month will exceed the US$5K goal.
For the conservative strategy deployed, no active trading is needed.
At 11:33am EST, MS is at $16.12. Option positions unrealized PnL is +$6,451.

Investment Fund Series A Update for Wed 5-Nov-08

No trades over the past few days. Profit plan for this month likely will be achieved.
At 9:55am EST, MS is at $19.09. Volatility continue to drop to 112%.
Option positions unrealized PnL is +$7,351.
Will be attending personal training from 9am to 9pm this Fri to Sun. And traveling on business trip the whole of next week. Will just put in a far-out stop lost guard for next two weeks.
For the closest option position (strike 12.50) to lose money MS has to drop from $19.09 to $10.85 (i.e. 44%) or lower over the next 16 days till 21-Nov. Probability of keeping the full targeted profit of $8,350 is still high.

Investment Fund Series A Status

Total net asset US$87,147. Cash position US$86,943.

Fund Series B Status

Total net asset US$18,736. Cash position US$19,586.

Investment Fund Series A Update for end Fri 31-Oct-08

No trades today.
MS closed the day at $17.47.
Option positions unrealized PnL is +$6,401.
As a seller, time decay and volatility decay advantage are on our side.

Remarks :-
Dow gone up by 144 points and closed at 9325 against what I have expected.
Nov and Dec typically are positive months for US shares. So, Dow may trends upward if there is no major negative news. However, with the huge market volatility, it will gyrate and can go either direction.

Investment Fund Series A Update for end Thu 30-Oct-08

No trades today.
MS closed the day at $16.09. Implied volatility at 148%.
Option positions unrealized PnL is +$4,991.
Thinking of liquidating all and lock-in the above profit immediately instead of waiting till expiry Friday 21-Nov to keep the full $8,340 (probability around 75%). As a seller, time and volatility decay advantage is on our side. Overall probability of losing money on this ladder of four option steps is less than 5%. Will be travelling on business trip from 10-Nov to 16-Nov and will be left with one week before expiry. Concern that no time to monitor and to place "guarding" auto trades. Likely will liquidate early and close out some or all positions soon.

Total target profit is $8,340 by option expiry Fri 21-Nov
To win full $8,340 by then, MS must stay at the fol. levels or above :-
10x MS-Nov-12.50-PUT ==> 12.50 - 1.65 = $11.85 (target profit $1,650)
10x MS-Nov-10.00-PUT ==> 10.00 - 1.10 = $8.90 (target profit $1,100)
30x MS-Nov-7.50-PUT ==> 7.50 - 0.81 = $6.69 (target profit $2,430)
20x MS-Nov-5.00-PUT ==> 5.00 - 1.58 = $3.42 (target profit $3,160)

Remarks :-
Dow gone up at market open. Market generally on up trend today against what I thought which is down. The Fed cut interest yesterday from 1.5% to 1.0% did improve the market sentiment.

Investment Fund Series A Update for end Wed 29-Oct-08

No trades today.
MS closed the day at $14.76.
Option positions in profit at +$4,105 unrealized PnL. Will continue to hold and may liquidate some prior to expiry Fri 21-Oct.

Remarks :-
Fed cut 50 interest from 1.5% to 1.0%.... one of the lowest that I can remember.
Thu and Fri likely to see more sell down as funds trying to close their books for 2008 and write off their loses. Funds will start buying again next week in early Nov at low prices to have a good start for the year 2009.
Notice that the further away out-of-money price changed that largest when Volatility dropped.
e.g. MS Implied Volatility dropped from yesterday 219% to today 154%. The option MS-Nov-5.0-PUT dropped the largest in price among the other stike-price options from $0.30 down to $0.20, a 33.33% dropped (eventhough the MS closing price dropped from end-yesteday $15.10 to end-today $14.76).

Investment Fund Series A Update for end Tue 28-Oct-08

STO (SELL To OPEN) some trades today to capitalize on the high Implied Volatility level of 220%.
SELL to Open another 10x on MS-Nov-7.5-PUT at $1.25.
SELL to Open another 10x on MS-Nov-5.0-PUT at $0.55.

Fairly volatile market today. Market open with Dow going higher. But MS and C both going down but reversed back up above opening price at closing.
At 10:27am EST, MS dropped all the way to $10.86 with fairly high volume by institutional sellers. Volatility increased to 220%. No major significant negative news on MS. Still believe that the price will stabilize or rise above $12.50 or $15.00 over the next 21 days.

At 10:49am EST total positions Unrealized PnL went down to -$3,635 (not includig profit of +$2,036 on MS-PUT-Nov-5.00).
Setup far away auto stop-losses guard and went to bed.




Stop loss did not get trigger. At market close 4:00pm EST, MS gone back up to $15.20. Unrealized PnL went back to positive at +$915 (not including profit of +$2,536 on MS-PUT-Nov-5.00).
Target profit by expiry 21-Nov is 1650+1100+2450+3150 = $8,350.

Investment Fund Series A Update for end Mon 27-Oct-08

No trades today.
Deepavali holiday yesterday. US market was very volatile and no clear directions. Did not trade.
Existing positions Unrealized P&L (paper gain/loss) reversed from +$420 to -$678. Auto stop-loss did not get trigger last night.
Expecting the unrealized P&L to potentially increase to more -ve before turning around. To continue to monitor and put in place auto stop-loss.

MS ended at $13.73
To win by option expiry Fri 21-Nov, MS must stay at the fol. levels or above :-
10x MS-PUT-Nov-12.50 ==> 12.50 - 1.65 = 11.85 (target profit $1,650)
10x MS-PUT-Nov-10.00 ==> 10.00 - 1.10 = 8.90 (target profit $1,100)
20x MS-PUT-Nov-7.50 ==> 7.50 - 0.60 = 6.90 (target profit $1,200)

(10x MS-PUT-Nov-5.00 ==> 5.00 - 2.60 = 2.40. This position was Open up during Oct Option month. Target profit $2,600).

Probability of wining by 21-Nov is still there with Time Decay and potential drop in Volatility on our side from now till that date.

Remarks :
Hedge fund managers selling to cover margin calls.
Expecting other fund managers to continue to sell their positions and lock in their losses from now till end of Oct (heard they close their 2008 books on end Oct, to be verified). The fund managers will start buying in again in early Nov to prepare for next year (2009), buying low low and have a good start for their 2009 performance.

w.rgds,
Go888Go

Investment Fund Series A Status

Total net asset US$83,398. Cash position US$84,074.

Fund Series B Status

Total net asset US$18,055. Cash position US$14,613.

Investment Fund Series A Update 24-Oct-08

SELL to Open 10x on MS-Oct-12.50-PUT at $1.65

SELL to Open 10x on MS-Oct-10.00-PUT at $1.10
SELL to Open 20x on MS-Oct-7.50-PUT at $0.60

Fund Series A on Expiry Friday 17-Oct-08

MS Oct Options expired worthless, CLOSED and kept profit of $15,859.
MS Nov Options still open and Unrealized Profit of $2,493.





Total net asset US$83,152. Cash position US$81,245.

Investment Fund Series A Status

Total net asset US$82,044. Cash position US$81,111.

Fund Series B Status

Total net asset US$15,240. Cash position US$5,862.

Investment Fund Series A Update for end Tue 14-Oct-08

BUY to Close 20x on C-Oct-12.50-PUT at $0.10
BUY to Close 10x on C-Oct-15.00-PUT at $0.28
BUY to Close 10x on C-Nov-15.50-PUT at $1.15

C (Citibank) announcing result 2 days from now on Thu 16-Oct. As we do not play on earnings (due to unpredictable volatile outcome), decided to take profit and close out ALL positions on C and not wait till expiry Fri 17-Oct to keep 100%.
BUY to CLOSE out all C position and kept $5,200 profit.
All positions on MS still open and plan to leave it till expiry Fri 17-Oct to let them expire worthless and keep the full 100% profit. Probability of winning on the MS option ladder which has already been setup is more than 75%.
Noticed that MS Implied Volatility has dropped from 500% to only 127%... which is great as it will be much cheaper to BUY back to CLOSE if one choose to do so.

Investment Fund Series A Update for end Fri 10-Oct-08

STO 110x Contracts today.
SELL to Open 20x on C-Oct-12.50-PUT at $1.11
SELL to Open 10x on C-Oct-15.00-PUT at $1.80
SELL to Open 10x on C-Nov-15.50-PUT at $2.83


SELL to Open 20x on MS-Oct-12.50-PUT at $3.34
SELL to Open 30x on MS-Oct-7.50-PUT at $2.38
SELL to Open 10x on MS-Oct-5.00-PUT at $2.05
SELL to Open 10x on MS-Nov-5.00-PUT at $2.60

Friday 10-10-2008.
The US ban on short selling was lifted yesterday 9-Oct.
Today is the most volatile day in the entire history of Dow. Dow swings more than a 1,000 points within a single day. All financial stocks with MS being the worst, came under attack and price crashed. G7 heads were having an urgent meeting in Washington in the afternoon on how to unfreeze the credit situation. Expect short sellers to close their positions before end of Friday. Also expect market to stabalize somewhat during next week.
Very high implied volatility today with MS crossing 500% and C 200%. Not a good time to BUY option as it gets much more expensive due to extreme high volatility and expiry Friday is just around the corner (7 days away) on Fri 17-Oct. So decided to SELL instead of BUY to enjoy time decay and expected volatility decay.



Assuming all factor remains the same, if the Volatility decreases by 50%, the Option price will drop by more than 50% and we will get to keep at least half the earnings.

Investment Fund Series A Status

Total net asset US$53,913. Cash position US$56,361.

Investment Fund Series A Update for end Thu 9-Oct-08

STO another position.
SELL to Open 10x on C-Oct-12.50-PUT at $1.18


Set up BUY LIMIT queue to BTC (BUY To Close) at targeted profits. The BTC orders got transacted while sleeping and all 3 positions CLOSED. Collected profit of $1,299 for C within a day.

Investment Fund Series A Update for 8-Oct-08

Testing out a new concept. Have been wanting to buy C (Citibank) since it has dropped to $20. But advice from personal and private banker is to wait as they believe C will continue to drop to close to or below $10.
One strategy is to buy half of the intended amount of Shares and use some of the balance money to sell PUTs. So if C price goes up and stay above the Strike Price, one gets to keep the Option money. And the C Shares bought will enjoy the price appreciation. If the price drops to below the Strike Price, one will get to buy the 2nd batch of C Shares cheaper than originally intended. The cost of the 2nd batch of Shares purchased will be the Strike Price minues the Options sold price.

Testing out this concept on the Options but wihout buying the Shares.... since volatility is high.

SELL to Open 10x on C-Oct-15-PUT at $1.80.
SELL to Open 10x on C-Nov-15-PUT at $2.68.

Fund A Status
Total net asset US$60,310. Cash position US$45,310.