No trades today.Deepavali holiday yesterday. US market was very volatile and no clear directions. Did not trade.
Existing positions Unrealized P&L (paper gain/loss) reversed from +$420 to -$678. Auto stop-loss did not get trigger last night.
Expecting the unrealized P&L to potentially increase to more -ve before turning around. To continue to monitor and put in place auto stop-loss.
MS ended at $13.73
To win by option expiry Fri 21-Nov, MS must stay at the fol. levels or above :-
10x MS-PUT-Nov-12.50 ==> 12.50 - 1.65 = 11.85 (target profit $1,650)
10x MS-PUT-Nov-10.00 ==> 10.00 - 1.10 = 8.90 (target profit $1,100)
20x MS-PUT-Nov-7.50 ==> 7.50 - 0.60 = 6.90 (target profit $1,200)
(10x MS-PUT-Nov-5.00 ==> 5.00 - 2.60 = 2.40. This position was Open up during Oct Option month. Target profit $2,600).
Probability of wining by 21-Nov is still there with Time Decay and potential drop in Volatility on our side from now till that date.
Remarks :
Hedge fund managers selling to cover margin calls.
Expecting other fund managers to continue to sell their positions and lock in their losses from now till end of Oct (heard they close their 2008 books on end Oct, to be verified). The fund managers will start buying in again in early Nov to prepare for next year (2009), buying low low and have a good start for their 2009 performance.
w.rgds,
Go888Go
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