Saturday, October 11, 2008

Investment Fund Series A Update for end Fri 10-Oct-08

STO 110x Contracts today.
SELL to Open 20x on C-Oct-12.50-PUT at $1.11
SELL to Open 10x on C-Oct-15.00-PUT at $1.80
SELL to Open 10x on C-Nov-15.50-PUT at $2.83


SELL to Open 20x on MS-Oct-12.50-PUT at $3.34
SELL to Open 30x on MS-Oct-7.50-PUT at $2.38
SELL to Open 10x on MS-Oct-5.00-PUT at $2.05
SELL to Open 10x on MS-Nov-5.00-PUT at $2.60

Friday 10-10-2008.
The US ban on short selling was lifted yesterday 9-Oct.
Today is the most volatile day in the entire history of Dow. Dow swings more than a 1,000 points within a single day. All financial stocks with MS being the worst, came under attack and price crashed. G7 heads were having an urgent meeting in Washington in the afternoon on how to unfreeze the credit situation. Expect short sellers to close their positions before end of Friday. Also expect market to stabalize somewhat during next week.
Very high implied volatility today with MS crossing 500% and C 200%. Not a good time to BUY option as it gets much more expensive due to extreme high volatility and expiry Friday is just around the corner (7 days away) on Fri 17-Oct. So decided to SELL instead of BUY to enjoy time decay and expected volatility decay.



Assuming all factor remains the same, if the Volatility decreases by 50%, the Option price will drop by more than 50% and we will get to keep at least half the earnings.

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